Tekstvak:

 

The following article is slightly abridged from the November issue of Haghighat ( issue number 36), organ  of the Communist Party of Iran (Marxist-Leninist-Maoist)

 

 

PUBLIC  OPINION  FABRICATION  AND  MILITARY DEPLOYMENT  FOR  A  HORRENDOUS  WAR

 

 

The US has started a new round of propaganda inside as well as outside US in order to justify a military attack against Iran. The Iran issue and the U.S. threats against her constantly fill up the top of international headline news and the U.S. tags Iran as the “Greatest Security Threat against America.”  Most importantly, the Naval, Air and Ground forces have completed their warfare logistical preparations, targets of their bombings and missiles are already set. Moreover, vicious paramilitary forces are being trained and organized by the “Special Forces” of Israel and the US inside the oppressed nationality areas of Iran. These paramilitary forces are prepared to carry out outrageous crimes when the war starts with the aim of confusing and frightening the masses, and paralyzing the revolutionary forces. 

 

Many people are wondering if this time around the U.S. will carry out its threats in reality and begin its attack in Iranian soil.  This question has a simple answer: The political, diplomatic and military activities of the US expose its will of military attack on Iran. It is rolling its internal and international policies on this very basis.  Hence, there is no reason for us to, alike the Islamic Republic officials, put people into sleep saying that these military and diplomatic activities of the US is just a show off. 

 

American War Machine is like a train on the rail which sometimes moves toward its goal (antagonistic clash with Iran), sometimes it stops when it runs into obstacles.  America could make its military attack against Iran before the end Bush’s presidency (Dec. 2008) or, let the next administration do it.  It is also possible that some Iranian or global events divert the war machine completely out of its currently rail. ( For example emergence of a revolutionary situation in Iran; escalations of peoples’ struggles against the Bush regime in the US or emergence of very serious contradictions within the US ruling class itself.)

But until such things have not changed the course of events we are in a situation that the political stage in Iran as well as the world is marked by a possible US war against Iran. To make the point understood we will make an analogy to the “cold war” period.  The “Cold War” between western imperialism block under leadership of the United States of America and, East imperialist block led by Soviet Union was the times when both parties was a period that both sides were preparing for a nuclear war with each other. In 1983 they went very close to pressing the war buttons. But that war did not occur and instead of a Third World War, that period ended with the downfall of the Soviet Union and its East Block. All through the cold war period, that confrontation towards a war shaped the global political stage and even had decisive influence over class alignments of forces in different countries (including in Iran) and for the proletariat in order to be able to mobilize its own independent force it had to pay attention to this situation and produce a revolutionary policy towards it and make preparations to turn the reactionary war into revolutionary war.

The war has not begun but, the war process has had decisive impact on the political and class alignments of forces in Iran and continues to have influence. Just take a look at the Left political forces in Iran and see what a astonishing metamorphosis have happened in many of them. Some have gone as far as becoming mercenaries for the US imperialism and Israelite security forces. Others have become a lobby for the Islamic Republic regime in Washington D.C.  Regardless of anybody or any political party’s wishes, the fact of the matter remains to be that the US War machine is set to move and any party or organization who intends to turn the current trend in Iran into a revolutionary one and wants to make sure that the future of Iran is decided by revolution and not once again by reactionaries and imperialists, it ought to figure this question in the ongoing class struggle and put forward a correct clear line. The future direction of our society depends on whether revolutionary political movement, the communist movement in Iran, is able to unite the streams of the struggles of workers, toilers, women and intellectuals, peasants and oppressed nations into a flood to overthrow the Islamic Republic regime and by seizing the helms of society, sand against US imperialist’s wicked plans.

 

Creating Public Opinion and War Preparations

Since last summer the office of Bush’s vice president, Dick Cheney, has commanded propaganda warfare against Iran in order to create public opinion in favor of war against Iran.  Media quote Dick Cheney saying that winning over only 30 percent of the public onion in the US is enough to start war against Iran.  Based on Seymour Hirsh’s knowledge (New Yorker, Oct. 8) Dick Cheney’s Office has ordered the U.S. Military Forces Chief to prepare a plan for a possible attack.  Hirsh writes that in the new military plans, instead of widespread bombing, the term “Surgical Mission” against Guard’s Army (of the Islamic Revolution) has been used.  This also is another one of the US government’s course of action to make this wicked crime seem to appear “Popular.”  Hirsh reports that recently Bush has told Ryan Crocker, the U.S. ambassador in Iraq, to prepare to attack certain targets on the “other side” of the border in which, the Brits will also cooperate. Hirsh write that details of a military attack “includes the usage of Cruz missiles shot from the sea, and Air Force attacks to destroy most of the Islamic Guards training Centers, its warehouses, and its command and control centers.  Planes, ships and the Cruse missiles of the U.S. Navy are readying up in the gulf performing their daily tasks.  And even AWACS planes are located at the designated spots.  Everyday the navy flies up its F18 jets for their missions.  Air attacks will be accompanied with a set of “short and quick attacks” by “Special Forces” units toward the Guards’ training centers (ibid.) According to Telegraph’s Daily paper of England, recently a conference consisting of the US Air Force and Gulf military leaders was held up for “Training and preparation of the Arabic Air Forces for a possible war with Iran.” (Sept 30th) 

Bush’s regime recently has also produced in important new coverage for the war against Iran.  Before this change’s coming, the U.S. propaganda’s focus was over the danger of Iran’s achievement of Nuclear (Weapons,) and was busy trying to rationalize and justify its “prevention war” against the Islamic Republic regime.  But nowadays, it has focused its propaganda toward Guard’s Army’s interference in the Iraq’s internal affairs.  The US claims that the Islamic Republic is busy moving forward an indirect war against US and Iraqi forces and, the “GHODS Army”, that is the Guard’s outside border force has an active military role in training and execution of anti American operations in Iraq.  The U.S. Congress has announced numerous times that any “preventing war” against Iran executed by the Bush administration is illegal.  That is why the Bush regime is busy decorating its war by "defense of our forces" mask or "war against terrorism".  The U.S. government's putting the Guards Army (Sepah Parsdaran) in the list of terrorists, both for imposition of economical sanctions against Iran (since in fact the Guard Army is a financial-industrial oligarchy) and also for designing a public cover for “across the border attacks” of Us forces in Iranian soil.

 

Is Danger of War serious?

Draft of an attack to Iran has been on the white house's "table" for some years already. Failure of US plans in Iraq has placed the current U.S. leaders in a difficult position in regard to beginning another war in the Middle East. Based on official statistics the Bush administration's popularity has declined and is not more than 20 percent. To an extent, the imperialist powers in Europe are against this war and Russia appears to be against it. There is serious opposition to starting a war against within U.S. even among those close to ruling class. It is to such degree that recently a group with the signature of U.S. military officers have produced a statement in which the American soldiers and officers are called to refuse to comply with the orders of attacking Iran and has sited the legal basis for it in the International Nuremburg Law.(Based upon international Nuremburg Law that is signed by the US as well, following illegal military orders equals war crimes. Based upon this very law it was when after the Second World War the Nazi officers were sentenced to death and treated as such.)  Even, between neocons who were the main architects of war in Iraq, a disagreement has occurred.  Michael Laden is definitely against that war and says he believes that "regime changing in Iran" should come about through "inside revolution."

 

All that said, number of reports from around the international bourgeois centers indicates that military attacks on Iran is getting more serious.  Serious problems of the U.S. in Iraq and serious oppositions within the U.S. have mellowed out her war planning against Iran but, it has not been put aside. One of the less reputable senators of the U.S called Senator Gavin said: "When they (Bush administration guys) are saying "All choices are on the table," they mean that there is an option of nuclear attack too."

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Islamic Republic

President Ahmadinejad, hypes a la Saddam Hussein saying:

 “Today the enemy [i.e., the US] is hopeless and all their threats are based on their own fears.” (Etemad Daily, March 24th) In this way he and his peers fill people’s ears with lullabies.

But what is the reality behind all these stupid hypes?

Firstly, similar to the U.S. imperialists, these reactionaries don’t have “good” choice(s)available to them. As a result of Confrontation with the US the internal contradictions in Iran has intensified: contradiction between the regime vs. the people (of Iran,) and internal contradictions within the Islamic Republic ruling class. But if the Islamic Republic regime retreats in the face of the US demands it will be like a suicide for them. 

Another basis for Islamic rulers hypes is that they assume Russia will support the Islamic Republic and all regimes who oppose the US. One faction of the IRI believes that a war with US is the only survival chance for this regime, because as a result of war the IRI can delay or put a lid on boiling internal contradictions which threaten to overthrow it. Under internal and external pressure, different factions of the regime conspire against each other all the time and plan to oust each other from power. Cracks within the regime is so obvious that recently Ahamadinejad said: some people from inside us point to the US to attack! One faction of the regime (Ahmadinejad) believes a war is a blessing for dealing with internal problems of IRI. Another powerful faction (represented by Rafsanjani) sees a war to act as catalysis for staging a velvet or military coup against the ruling faction.

 

Is Russia against the US military attack?

US  and Russia have serious conflicts, but Iran per se is not their centre of conflict. Russia is determined to use Iran as a pawn in  the global chess game which is going on among the imperialist powers. Although Russia is concerned with total US hegemony in the Middle East but Iran pawn usage in the game has other advantages for her that are beyond the Middle East boundaries.  Russia wants what she considers her share of world’s plunder. Russia will cooperate with US on Iran question if she gets the economic and geopolitical concessions that it wants-- such as expansion of influence of the Russian capital in the global oil and natural gas cartels and, in European economy. Russia’s opposition to economic sanctions of Iran or military attacks against Iran is in fact a power projection on the global stage. These kind of political and military power projections are necessary parts of accumulation process of capitalism in the era of imperialism.

The U.S. imperialism which is borrowing from the “future” to deal with her current plans is also able to fulfill Russia’s imperialist thirst.  Some Iran analysts believe that the Islamic Republic has given major concessions to Russia to have its backing.  One of these is its acceptance of Russian conditions in regard to the Caspian Sea’s division among “neigbours”. Doubtless, if the U.S. decides to attack Iran, Russia will not stand up against US.  October 17th speech of Bush that came a day after Putin’s visiting Iran (to participate in Caspian Sea’s Countries Conference) exposed a very major aspect of the U.S. status vs. Islamic republic’s regime, in other words it showed that the security and bounds of the U.S. contradiction with Iran is originated from the larger plan of the U.S., that is her desired boundless domination of the world.  In response to Putin’s visiting Tehran, and words through which he had declared any sort of attacking Iran are forbidden, Bush stated that if Iran does not take hands of its nuclear program, the Third World War will start.  This threat is clearly a threat against Russia, not against Iran.  Bush said: “We have disagreements against Russia on numerous problems but, on two matters we agree on completely: on Iran, and on Nuclear Weapon’s expansion all around the world.”  Of course on both grounds they have disagreements.  But the U.S. intends to insist it is not willing to give any points to Russia over these two. 

 

Big attack or Big Compromise!

Guardian, London daily paper described the future U.S. and Iran’s confrontation with these lines: The Big attack or big compromise!

 

It is clear that the Islamic Republic rulers are trying hard to arrive at an agreement with the US, and no doubt, Bush’s administration is also looking into striking deals with powerful circles within the Iran ruling circles. The Iraq experience showed to the US rulers that forging a new gang of reactionary rulers complete with their military and security apparatus is not an easy thing. The possibility of a “big compromise” between US and IRI is not ruled out but this does not exclude a "big attack".

Some other Middle East political and military experts look upon the matter as more multifaceted.  Their prediction counts into its account the probability that the U.S. attacking Iran can immediately turn into a long scale war with Iran or even end up with an endless region war.  These experts proclaim that Iran's any sort of actions for revenge will be the war's ignition.  Clearly Brits and Americans will immediately occupy the Hormoz Strait and Gulf Shores in order to prevent disruption in the traffic of oil and trade ships or, for example, Pakistan starts a war with Afghanistan to prevent its instabilities escalation or, Turkey enters Iraqi soil under the cover of hitting the  P.K.K and Iran also enters Iraq or Afghanistan for variety of their “national security” reasons.

 

Foreseeing that such possibility could spin things out of U.S. control is a factor that makes the US ruling classes prudent in pushing the buttons of the war machine.

 

We ought to analyze and dig into processes with a dialectical materialist method. Important factors (as mentioned above) can change the present course of war. But US’s horrendous plans for Iran does not stop at staging a military attack. But a political and economic restructuring of Iran is on agenda. And US will go to any extend to intervene in Iran with or without war and have the last word on future of Iran. Lives of tens of millions will be destroyed by the beginning of new economic restructuring. Capitalism has to accumulate with higher speed and higher rates of profit. And for this it needs to change the political and economic structures of Middle East. And till it reaches this goal millions of people will be sacrificed in the altar of capital: first with war and if the war ends with “economic reforms”.

 

Struggle to prevent the US war against Iran is part of fighting against this horrendous future. Any one honesty looks at this picture from any angle will have to admit that the people of Iran have no choice but to make revolution: a revolution that will overthrow the Islamic Republic, will put power in the hands of the toiling masses, will rebuild the economic structure of the country in such a way that it will serve the needs of the masses and not the world market and deadly cycles and turns of world capitalism.

This kind of revolution will be a bloody one. But in the absence of such revolution the body of workers, peasants and all peoples of Iran will bleed so much that we can not now even imagine it. The challenge facing the communist and revolutionary forces is this: Under the banner of what programme and plan the proletariat and toilers and women and oppressed nations of Iran will fight for a different future?

 

Masses of the workers, toilers and peoples of Iran must pass the ship of their future through these turbulent and complex waters. Leading through such complex situation is the task of the communists, because only honest and revolutionary communists, with vigilance, foresight and great sacrifices can train the masses about the nature of all different imperialists and reactionary bands. If the communists do not shoulder their obligations, then we shall witness one of the most horrendous chapters in the class struggle in Iran.

Communist Comrades: it is urgent to put forward a plan for forging great unity of the people and the principles of the future society that we must fight for!

 

 

Communist Party of Iran (Marxist-Leninist-Maoist)

Haghighat # 36 Nov 2007

 

www .sarbedaran.org